From A Historical Perspective, How Much Does Being The Preseason #1 Matter?

Thanks to the fine researchers from AP Poll Archive (http://www.appollarchive.com/), the following is the list of all of the AP Preseason Poll #1's and what their final ranking ended up being. Obviously, the AP's vote does not factor into the BCS anymore, but it is still interesting to see how teams have fared after being given the top spot in the Preseason poll. Without further ado:

Final Rankings of Preseason #1 Teams

Season		Team		Final
2008		Georgia		???
2007		USC		3
2006		Ohio State		2
2005		USC		2
2004		USC		1
2003		Oklahoma		3
2002		Miami (FL)		2
2001		Florida		3
2000		Nebraska		8
1999		Florida State		1
1998		Ohio State		2
1997		Penn State		16
1996		Nebraska		6
1995		Florida State		4
1994		Florida		7
1993		Florida State		1
1992		Miami (FL)		3
1991		Florida State		4
1990		Miami (FL)		3
1989		Michigan		7
1988		Florida State		3
1987		Oklahoma		3
1986		Oklahoma		3
1985		Oklahoma		1
1984		Auburn		14
1983		Nebraska		2
1982		Pittsburgh		10
1981		Michigan		12
1980		Ohio State		15
1979		USC		2
1978		Alabama		1
1977		Oklahoma		7
1976		Nebraska		9
1975		Oklahoma		1
1974		Oklahoma		1
1973		USC		8
1972		Nebraska		4
1971		Notre Dame		13
1970		Ohio State		5
1969		Ohio State		4
1968		Purdue		10
1967		Notre Dame		5
1966		Alabama		3
1965		Nebraska		5
1964		Mississippi		NR
1963		USC		NR
1962		Ohio State		NR
1961		Iowa		NR
1960		Syracuse		19
1959		LSU		3
1958		Ohio State		8
1957		Oklahoma		4
1956		Oklahoma		1
1955		UCLA		4
1954		Notre Dame		4
1953		Notre Dame		2
1952		Michigan State		1
1951		Tennessee		1
1950		Notre Dame		NR

NOTE: The preseason poll started in 1950

As you can see, in the 58 years that the AP has provided a Preseason poll, the preseason #1 has gone on to finish #1 ten times (including five times since 1978). After glancing over the chart, the one thing that shocked me was the following statistic: from 1957-1973 no preseason #1 finished the year #1 (a stretch of almost two decades).

Much of that was probably due to the fact that back in those days luxuries such as ESPN GamePlan did not exist, so most of the writers got their information about teams through word-of-mouth as opposed to actually seeing the players/teams with their own eyes.

Due to all of the media coverage and the ability for millions to be able to see a plethora of games each week followed up with tons of highlights, I do not think it is a coincidence that since the beginning of the BCS era (1998) the lowest the Preseason AP #1 has finished was 8th in 2000 (a 10-2 Nebraska team). Actually that team is a bit of an outlier in the past decade, as the rest of the other nine teams finished ranked #3 or higher. Two teams (FSU in 1999 and USC in 2004) won the National Championship and four teams (Miami in 2002, Oklahoma in 2003, USC in 2005 and OSU in 2006) lost in the Title Game. So, in the past nine years, the preseason #1 has gone to the Title Game six times (going 2-4 over that stretch).

So, what does all of this mean? Well, you can look at it a variety of ways. On one hand, you could suggest that with the recent success of the preseason #1's, Georgia is destined for the BCS Championship Game. On the other, you can point out the fact that last year's preseason #1 did not and given the fact that the Dawgs are going to have to play the toughest schedule in the country with only two returning starters on the OL the Dawgs have just as good of a chance to not go. I tend to be more of an optimist, so hopefully the former (and not the latter) occurs.

Tomorrow can't come soon enough! Go Dawgs.